| Fantasy Firemen |
| Written by Kamran, Angus and Status | |
| Wednesday, 18 June 2008 | |
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Welcome to the first instalment of Fantasy Firemen. Here you will find a breakdown of the current situation of each major league team’s bullpen and how it effects fantasy. This is your source for finding your best options for saves and holds and deciding which situations are the most volatile. The various risk levels will be assigned to each situation as well as the current closer and the top threats for that position among the set-up men. Even the lowest risk level is still called smoldering because no closer is ever completely safe in his role. An inferno is the situation is which the bullpen is either in a closer by committee situation or the current closer is really on the hot set. We will post the statistics with the big players for each pen and will give you the date on which each situation was updated.
Risk Level Very Low: Smoldering Low: Smoking Moderate: Burning High: Blazing Very High: Inferno
National League West
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Closer - J. Broxton (64 IP, 13 SV, 84 K, 13 HLD, 3.23 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 11.81 K/9)
Risk – Blazing The closing situation is the best kind of problem for the Dodgers; they have two solid options available for them to close. Takashi Saito, who has not been playing due to an elbow injury, was activated from the 60-day DL on Sept. 16. In Saito’s absence Jonathan Broxton has been pitching incredibly well and it is believed Saito is not expected to resume the duty of team’s closer… for now. Joe Torre has been reported as saying they will only use Saito in low-stress situations so it is popular belief that Broxton’s days as the closer for the Dodgers are numbered. He’ll resume duties as the team’s set-up man, greatly diminishing the role of Hong-Chih Kuo.
San Diego Padres
Closer - T. Hoffman (42.1 IP, 28 SV, 45 K, 0 HLD, 4.04 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9.57 K/9) Threat #1 - H. Bell (72.1 IP, 0 SV, 66 K, 21 HLD, 2.99 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.21 K/9)
Risk – Smoking It’s business as usual for the San Diego Padres’ bullpen. While none of the pitchers are putting up impressive numbers they appear to be getting the job done. Future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman continues to close for the Padres but this could be his last season with the team. Because of the potential departure of Hoffman the door is open for Heath Bell to take over the closing duties for the Padres next season. Cla Meredith would then become a more than competent set-up man for Bell if that is the path the Padres take. It appears a transformation of the Padres’ bullpen is looming in the not-so-distant future.
San Franciso Giants
Closer - B. Wilson (59.1 IP, 39 SV, 62 K, 0 HLD, 4.40 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 9.40 K/9) Risk – Smouldering In his first full year as closer Brian Wilson has put up solid numbers across the board and solidified his position as team closer for the foreseeable future. Wilson's ERA is a little high, but he has a nice save percentage and nice numbers overall. Despite his recent struggles Wilson is still a high-caliber closer in the league. The role of the set-up man has been, in recent games, a battle between Alex Hinshaw, Tyler Walker, Serio Romo, and Jack Taschner. None of these pitchers pose any real threat to Wilson’s role as closer.
American League Central (updated 8/20/08)
Chicago White Sox
Closer- Bobby Jenks (45.1 IP, 25 SV, 25 K, 0 HLD, 1.79 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 4.96 K/9) Threat #1- Octavio Dotel (55.2 IP, 1 SV, 76 K, 18 HLD, 3.40 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 12.29 K/9) Threat #2- Scott Linebrink (DL with 39.0 IP, 1 SV, 33 K, 19 HLD, 2.31 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 7.62 K/9)
Risk- Smoldering The White Sox closing situation is stable. Bobby Jenks is solidified as the closer, and they have some of the best bullpen arms like Linebrink, Dotel, and Thornton. Dotel is dominant as a closer or set-up man with K's when healthy and Linebrink is perrenially one of the best in the game for holds. When Jenks went on the DL in July the Sox went with a closer-by-committee approach, but things work much better when everyone is pitching within their respective roles. They are stacked. The Sox have a very strong club overall as well and with the addition of Ken Griffey Jr. will be looking to make some noise in the postseason.
Cleveland Indians
Closer- Jensen Lewis (48.1 IP, 3 SV, 33 K, 4 HLD, 3.91 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 6.14 K/9) Threat #1- Rafael Perez (63.1 IP, 2 SV, 67 K, 18 HLD, 3.13 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.52 K/9) Threat #2- Masa Kobayashi (51.2 IP, 6 SV, 35 K, 2 HLD, 4.35 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 6.10 K/9)
Risk- Inferno Cleveland does not have a closer right now... or at least they don't realize the DO have one. The Indians have apparently lost faith in Kobayashi’s closing abilities. Rafael Perez is their best bullpen arm, but the Indians may be reluctant to move him to the closing position since he is so valuable in multi-inning situations. Edward Mujica is another solid arm in the pen that the Indians may use to close but Jensen Lewis has received more opportunity, is young and has succeeded thus far. He isn't nearly as sexy a pitcher to have getting saves as Rafael, but it is his for now. Betancourt has really fallen off since last year but deserves to be watched. They won’t be winning many games down the stretch, so in the short term this is definitely a situation to avoid.
Detroit Tigers
Closer- Fernando Rodney (27.1 IP, 5 SV, 32 K, 5 HLD, 4.28 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 10.54 K/9) Threat #1- Joel Zumaya (DL with 23.1 IP, 1 SV, 22 K, 5 HLD, 3.47 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, 8.49 K/9) Threat #2- Kyle Farnsworth (51.2 IP, 1 SV, 50 K, 12 HLD, 4.18 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 8.71 K/9)
Risk- Inferno Much like the Indians, the Tigers closing situation is a mess right now as well. Joel Zumaya has been deemed the closer, but because of his nagging arm/shoulder problems he isn’t able to pitch on consecutive days and is now on the disabled list, so expect to see some of Fernando Rodney and newly acquired Kyle Farnsworth. If and when Todd Jones returns again, there will be even more arms vying for the closing duty there. Jones may be given his closing spot back just because of the mess the Tigers are in when trying to finish off games. Zumaya is too injury-prone to count on right now, and Rodney has been pretty bad much of the season until lately. Farnsworth put together some decent appearances with the Yankees and Tigers, but Rodney has started to take control of this situation. Anything is better than Jones really.
Kansas City Royals
Closer- Joakim Soria (54.2 IP , 33 SV, 58 K, 0 HLD, 1.48 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 9.55 K/9) Threat #1- Ramon Ramirez (57.2, 0 SV, 61 K, 15 HLD, 2.81 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 9.52 K/9) Threat #1- Robinson Tejeda (32. IP, 0 SV, 35 K, 1 HLD, 3.66 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.84 K/9)
Risk- Smoldering Joakim Soria is a sensational pitcher. He has had one of the best debuts in a career by a reliever in recent memory. It is hard to believe he is only 24. Unfortunately, this success may change things, as he probably won’t be staying in the bullpen for long. Hitters are hitting a paltry .071 against him, and many in the Royals organization believe he has only begun to scratch the surface of his talent. He pitches so efficiently that it seems natural that he will eventually slide into the starting rotation, perhaps at the top. He doesn’t have the pitch repertoire of an ace, but he has the command and demeanor of one. His curveball is plain nasty and has garnered comparisons to a decent closer in Anaheim by the name of Francisco Rodriguez. Expect him to stay as the Royals closer for at least this and next season, though. Ron Mahay was almost moved to the Red Sox at the deadline, and he is a decent option out of the pen but is too old to be a real threat for keepers. Ramirez and Tejeda are more interesting although Tejeda hasn't been given the hold opportunities yet.
Minnesota Twins
Closer- Joe Nathan (53.0 IP, 33 SV, 58 K, 0 HLD, 1.02 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 9.85 K/9) Threat #1- Pat Neshek (DL with 13.1 IP, 0 SV, 15 K, 6 HLD, 4.73 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 10.13 K/9) Threat #2- Jesse Crain (50.0 IP, 0 SV, 38 K, 16 HLD, 3.60 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 6.84 K/9)
Risk- Smoldering The Twins also boast a very solid situation. Joe Nathan has been “the man” in Minnesota for the past half-decade, and that won’t change soon. He is perennially a top five closer and is arguably the most consistent fantasy closer to own. The Twins bullpen has been worn down this season, which has forced Nathan to pitch out of his comfort zone of one-inning appearances. The bullpen contains power-pitching Jesse Crain, who is second on the Twins with 16 holds. Matt Guerrier leads that category with 18, but his numbers have slipped a bit from 2007. Still, Pat Neshek is the closer in waiting for this team as he is relatively young and capable of huge strikeout totals and a great ERA as proven last season. Even though he is on the DL for this season, he is still the number one threat on the long term. He is that much better than the other options.
American League East (updated 8/3/08)
Baltimore Orioles
Closer- George Sherrill (44.2 IP, 30 SV, 49 K, 0 HLD, 4.23 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 9.87 K/9) Threat #1- Jim Johnson (58.1 IP, 1 SV, 32 K, 18 HLD, 1.85 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 4.94 K/9) Threat #2- Chad Bradford (38.2 IP, 0 SV, 13 K, 16 HLD, 2.56 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.03 K/9)
Risk- Burning George Sherrill was acquired along with Adam Jones from the Mariners in the Erik Bedard deal, and he has been a revelation for the O’s. Sherrill earned a spot on the AL All-Star Team, and there was a ton of interest for him at the deadline. He already has 30 saves, but in the long run we see him as more of a set-up man. His spot is safe for now, but he has really struggled in the last month with a 7.36 ERA and 2.45 WHIP. The O’s relief pitchers – Jim Johnson, Chad Bradford, Jamie Walker, and so on – present little danger to Sherrill’s closing spot. Johnson is probably the best because Bradford, who has a lot of holds, is just a fantasy liability with very low K totals. Even if he did get the role, his K/9 would kill you. The real threat is Chris Ray, but unfortunately, he has been shut down for the season.
Boston Red Sox
Closer- Jon Papelbon (47.1 IP, 30 SV, 56 K, 0 HLD, 2.09 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 10.65 K/9) Threat #1- Hideki Okajima (43.0 IP, 1 SV, 39 K, 18 HLD, 2.72 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.16 K/9) Threat #2- Manny Delcarmen (45.2, 0 SV, 43 K, 14 HLD, 4.14 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.47 K/9)
Risk- Smoldering The Red Sox bullpen situation is set in stone. As goofy as he is, Jonathan Papelbon is a stud closer who will be the go-to guy in Boston for the next few years at least. The Red Sox will be in tough to lock him up to a reasonable salary – he appears to be balking at signing something long term. Okajima is the best set-up man and holds source despite his struggles with men on base this season. Manny Delcarmen is also a great young strikeout and holds source in the pen which is the strongest in the division.
New York Yankees
Closer- Mariano Rivera (48.1 IP, 26 SV, 58 K, 1.49 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 10.80 K/9) Threat #1- Damaso Marte (50.0 IP, 5 SV, 53 K, 16 HLD, 3.60 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.54 K/9) Threat #2- Jose Veras (36.2 IP, 0 SV, 39 K, 6 HLD, 2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9.57 K/9)
Risk- Smoldering Mariano Rivera’s save totals have been declining over the past few seasons, but with the money he makes the Yankees will keep giving him the ball in the ninth inning. Newly acquired Damaso Marte will help set up for Rivera and is an elite holds option now. He will have to be effective if he wants to be brought back by the Yankees – he has a $6 million option for the 2009 season. Veras is getting more holds opportunities than Ramirez or Bruney but they both have awesome numbers.
Tampa Bay Rays
Closer- Troy Percival (33.2 IP, 24 SV, 33 K, 2 HLD, 3.48 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 8.82 K/9) Threat #1- Dan Wheeler (50.0 IP, 5 SV, 53 K, 24 HLD, 3.60 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.54 K/9) Threat #2- Grant Balfour (30.0 IP, 4 SV, 45 K, 3 HLD, 1.20 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 13.50 K/9)
Risk- Smoking Troy Percival is the man to close on Tampa for the short term, but his age and injury problems make his position there somewhat shaky. The Rays have a solid pen – and have gone with a save by committee approach when Percival has gone down. Grant Balfour has been effective this season, as has Dan Wheeler who is sporting a minute 0.90 WHIP and is a monster for holds. Wheeler and Balfour are the best of the Rays pen, and one of them may be the closer when Percival inevitably gets hurt again. J.P Howell (11 HLD) is another important source for holds and numbers because he qualifies at SP.
Toronto Blue Jays
Closer- B.J. Ryan (38.0 IP, 21 SV, 36 K, 1 HLD, 3.32 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.53 K/9) Threat #1- Scott Downs (52.2 IP, 5 SV, 45 K, 16 HLD, 1.37 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 7.69 K/9) Threat #2- Jesse Carlson (40.0 IP, 1 SV, 42 K, 13 HLD, 1.80 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9.45 K/9)
Risk- Smoking B.J. Ryan is set as the Jays closer, even with his shaky play this season. The Jays paid a big sum to lure him away from the division-rival Orioles. Jeremy Accardo – who is currently on the DL – replaced Ryan last year pretty well with a 30-save showing, but he is more of a set up man and will be put in that role once he returns. Scott Downs is definitely the best relief pitcher in the Jays bullpen. He is a tricky pitcher to hit and may get the odd closing opportunity if Ryan gets hurt again. Casey Janssen is also a great holds source from last season (24 HLD) but he is out with a torn right labrum this season. With the absence of two significant set-up men, rookie Jesse Carlson has arrived and put up better numbers than either of them.
We believe that spending big on a closer is a waste of money. It is much easier to find and convert a pitcher into a closing role than to find a starting pitcher (or some bats for the offensively-starved Jays).
We have more divisions to come!
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| Last Updated ( Saturday, 20 September 2008 ) |
