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AL Report: Fallen Star Sleepers
The Status Report
Written by J Status   
Thursday, 31 July 2008

 

Aubrey Huff with Orioles

Aubrey Huff with Rays

 

He's back and better than ever. There are those players out there who do it to you. They have one or two great seasons and just disappear. It occurred more during the supposed end of the steroid era than previously it seems. With guys getting off the juice, their bodies fall apart… leaving a long recovery period that is sometimes too difficult to climb out of for both physical and competitive reasons.

 

 I personally believe some players are just so talented that they returned to a near-star form naturally. Others I think found their way to another, more untraceable form of enhancement like Human Growth Hormone. Which category does Aubrey Huff fall under?

 

Okay Huffamanics, maybe he isn’t a user. It is just strange how successful and young he was to start his career. His fall from grace was dramatic and somewhat difficult to explain, but he is back after all. It is great to see regardless of the reason.  Huff has fulfilled on the promise of what I like to call a “Fallen Star Sleeper.” These are not “Post-Hype Sleepers.” Those are players that disappointed from the git go. Fallen Star Sleepers have proven something. They were once among the elite. Huff was a player who had really solidified himself in that class… or so we thought.  

 

In his second semi-full season, Huff contributed 23 homers and 59 RBI with a .313 average in only 113 games. As expected, he put together a star season the next season with 34 homers, 107 RBI, 91 runs and a .311 average. He took what he had done is the shorter season and carried it through a full season. He seemed like one of the safer young stars in baseball back then. He followed that with a nearly equally stellar performance with 29 homers, 104 RBI, 92 runs and a .297 average. That is a pretty damn great three-year run. This period ended in 2004.  

 

For reference, the Anabolic Steroid Control Act was introduced in October 2004 while in January 2005 the players and owners agreed to the new drug program with names of violators to be made public for the first time as well as the first positive test resulting in suspensions for the first time as opposed to counseling as a punishment. Seemed like a good time to pull out of the gig if you ask me. Maybe that is what Huff decided. 

 

Whatever the reason, his power numbers for homers dropped approximately 32% for the next two seasons. He then bottomed out with 15 homers in 2007 in a nearly full season of 151 games. Throught these three years, his average dipped as well ranging from the .260’s to the .280’s.

 

Now he is back. In two-thirds of a season, Huff has already surpassed his average performance from the last three seasons. He is back to his 02-04 production. In a full season, Huff would contribute 34 homers, 104 Runs,  112 RBI and a .302 average. He is on pace for his best season ever.  

 

So, having seen the progression of this Fallen Star Sleeper, who else could qualify? In my mind, there are several guys who fall under this category. As another reborn star, I would say Magglio Ordonez would qualify. His value was so low in 2005-2006 when he was struggling with injuries but also only contributing 17 homers in 134 combined games. Now flash forward to last year. He had one of the best seasons in history with 28 homers and a .363 average. What a comeback.  

 

Jorge Cantu (NL) was another classic example. He was not even in fantasy for quite a while and he was a 28 homer, 117 RBI second baseman in 2005, and many left him for dead. Now look… back to stardom with 18 homers and a .289 average. The key was that he is so young. He is a 1982 baby.  

 

Adrian Beltre is another guy who I am reminded of. Though he had only one huge year, he did it at such a young age and high level, I feel he is the highest upside sleeper of this type around. He is still only 29 and had 48 homers, 121 RBI and a .334 average when he was just 25. 

 

I’d say Eric Hinske is a borderline qualifier though his level is nowhere near that of Beltre. He is the other end of the spectrum for this. Hinske was a star as a rookie however and has returned some this season.  

 

Nick Swisher, Bill Hall (NL) and Travis Hafner are all on their way to becoming these players. They have had extended periods of struggles but could still burst out any year and are young enough to do so for an extended period of success. Hank Blalock is another great one because he is still only 28 but had several great seasons in his early years. 86 homers from 2003 to 2005 scream Fallen Star Sleeper. One of these years, he should be back. But when? That is the difficulty.  Still, this is why we always carry these types on the bench before guys like David DeJesus who are dependable, yet don’t have that extra upside. 

 

 

In other news…  

 

 

Sell High:

Jason Bay, OF, BOS

As of this afternoon, Jason qualifies for this article as a junior circuit member. Take advantage of the hype. His value has been great this season, but this move will definitely solidify his value at a level it hasn’t been in two or three years. He is a bit scary still considering his season last year. If you get a huge offer, you better take it. It is just the safe move to cash in now.  

 

Buy Low:

Carlos Pena, 1B, TB

This is a guy that would have been better to write about months ago but I didn’t have the opportunity. His overall average is still showing .236, and he had a similar track last year of improving his average as the season progressed. Injury has slowed him, and he isn’t going to do what he did last year again probably, but he is a .260, 35 homer threat year in, year out for the next five years in my opinion. A uninformed owner may even not realize how many games he has actually missed. In a full season, he is on pace for 33 homers and that average climbs. Go get him. He has 7 homers and a near .260 average this past month anyway.  

 

Still Kickin’: Veteran Revivals

Garret Anderson, OF, LAA

Here is a former star who still has some flash. Unfortunately, he is too old to count on. At 36, he is still extremely serviceable for the short-term needs. Once a constant 30 homer, .300 average threat, Garret is back to his hot hitting ways with a nice five homers and more importantly .358 average in the last month. Don’t forget this guy was once a model of consistency in his stardom.  Melvin Mora, 3B, BALThis is also a 36-year-old option. Do you remember 2004? Melvin Mora hit 27 homers, 104 RBI and a .340 average. It seems like every season he still goes through a huge streak to show what he is capable of. This is that time. Grab him while he is still putting up numbers like he has in the last month with five homers, a .311 average and a whooping 26 RBI.  

 

Youth Movements: Rookies making their mark

Chris Davis, 1B, TEX

This guys is the closest thing to Ryan Braun we have seen this year. Both players were top prospects (Braun more so), but not of the most elite level. They were overshadowed by others at their positions like Gordon and Butler. Still, the lack of hype didn’t stop them. 10 homers and a .306 average is an amazing start to a career in 30 games and he shot up the prospect ranks as a result. Proving your value at the MLB level is so tough, it will really give a prospect the edge in those rankings.

 

 One last note: Huff has 8 homers and an amazing .386 average this month. He is just getting better in 2008.

 

Last Updated ( Saturday, 02 August 2008 )
 
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