| AL Report: Brandon's Back? |
| Written by J Status | |
| Sunday, 17 August 2008 | |
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Remember him? He’s an option in our current poll and is considered a disappointment by many fantasy players around the game. Still, his season this year is giving some owners hope and should be giving us all reason to inquire on his status and availability.
Let’s go back to 2005. This was the year of Wood. Sure Tiger won The Masters and British Open but we aren’t talking about him. Brandon Wood set two significant homerun records that season. In the Class A Advanced California League, a place notorious for its offense, Wood destroyed the field with 43 homers in 2005 while hitting .321. In the Arizona Fall League that followed, he set another record with 14 homers. This kind of power at these levels and this age were unheard of. Following this, Wood received several player of the year awards and was considered a top prospect by well respected sites like Baseball America right behind the likes of Delmon Young and Justin Upton. We know the upside and respect those players have received as they are already important parts of the fantasy landscape for now and the future. So what happened to Brandon and his value?
It all started with expectations. The power Wood presented in 2005 was so immense, even a great performance was looked at as failure. Everything dipped for Wood as he moved to the next level of Double-A the following season. His average fell to .276 and his homers dipped to only 25 (I can’t believe I’m saying only for that total at Double-A). This worried many of his owners.
Another problem is position eligibility. Wood was the ultimate in prospect value when he was listed as a shortstop. The numbers he was carrying at the position for power were comparable to that of a young A-Rod at the position. He was almost untouchable unless you were willing to give up a somewhat proven star.
Now Brandon is playing third base which isn’t all bad. That isn’t as bad as first, but this combined loss of value at shortstop and big dip in numbers despite he moved up a significant level tore apart his image. Still, he was only 21 and hadn’t gotten a chance in the majors yet.
In 2007 that changed. Brandon Wood was promoted to Triple-A and proceeded to almost duplicate his totals from Double-A. This should be viewed as another positive and was by some but others were disappointed he didn’t “rebound” to his 40-homer prowess. The Angels felt it was enough to deserve his first major league time and he received 33 plate appearances. In this extremely small sample size, Wood struggled mightily with only one homer and a .152 average. How disappointing. Wood’s value fell dramatically.
It got worse. This season was rock bottom for Brandon Wood. He received 68 plate appearances in late April and May and was awful. He hit .125 with only one homer again in 29 games. This was time to buy low. The former first-round pick and prospect superstar was being thrown into some deals. It isn’t over yet.
Wood still has some things going for him. Believe it or not, after all these years, he is still only 23. Top prospects like Matt LaPorta are actually older than him and haven’t accomplished nearly as much in the minors. At the same time, it is good in a way that a guy like LaPorta hasn’t proven that he is incapable of a smooth transition to the majors like Wood did, but that leads us to another positive for Wood. His major league experience isn’t that exhaustive yet. When you think of how long it took some players like Markakis to get comfortable in their first season, it is fully reasonable to think Wood could come around. He has only played in 42 games after all and it wasn’t even the same season. We need to give the kid a break.
The most positive thing for Brandon Wood is that he has completely mastered each level now leading up to the highest level. He is killing Triple-A in his second season there and has 28 homers already with nearly a .300 average and has been hitting well above that for the last month or so. He is not stalling out. The Angels are too good to give guys like Wood and Morales a fair chance but if Brandon does see a full season, I think he shows that star potential is still there. Be optimistic about this guy. He is far from a bust.
Feel free to go vote for Brandon or some other prospect disappointment in our poll here.
In other news…
Sell High: Marlon Byrd, OF, TEX As I’ve mentioned in the Ramblings, I’m no fan of Byrd. He always has a nice streak here or there but soon after loses his job due to injury or the return or arrival of a better option. He is in his thirties and… what do you know… he just got a hyper extended elbow tonight. I guess that sell high might be more difficult now.
Carlos Delgado, 1B, NYM He has been a great player throughout his career. His owners in keeper leagues are extremely lucky he had one last hoorah in him after the disaster that was 2007 and the beginning of 2008. Trade him before the age takes it all away for good. He may have another 30 homer season for a year or two but I think 2009 will be much closer to 2007 than 2006. 35 homers is probably a thing of the past while a .300 average is long gone. Get while the gettin’ is good and trade this 36-year-old star.
Buy Low: Delmon Young, OF, MIN Here is a pretty obvious one. Delmon Young is showing signs of a real breakout. Besides his continual improvements in overall average, he is still running and hitting homers of late. Three homers this past week is huge.
Michael Bourn, OF, HOU This speed merchant has only one steal in the last month. He has 33 on the season. That says it all. His value is way down due to his injury but his average has been up. He was hitting extremely well before the ankle problem especially. This future 60-steal outfielder isn’t running because he isn’t fully healthy yet, but don’t let that fool you. He will run again and hopefully will maintain a nice average while doing it finally. 2007 shows he is capable. Even though he is only hitting .226, he has raised his average 45 points since mid-May.
Chad Billingsley, P, LAD To many of you this may seem like a big stud to be on the Buy Low but for some reason well beyond me, many players are still undervaluing him. Chad is a superstar. He had a very rough start but has been amazing ever sense and has the strikeout totals to make up for any hiccups elsewhere. He is fourth in the league in K’s and his numbers are only off because he had a 5.20 ERA in April. After that, he has been lights out. He deserves equal value with that of a top 10 starting pitcher and you can probably get him for something closer to top 20.
Johnny Cueto, P, CIN I love this kid. He too carries a very high strikeout total and his up and downs this season are to be expected for most rookie seasons. He has been solid in August again giving up only six runs in 16 innings. He has six starts where he gave up five or six runs. If he could cut those in half he would be almost elite already. The K’s make his ceiling extremely high and his value is lower still with an ERA near five. We have seen the flashes. If you are out of it or even if you aren’t but could use a boost in strikeouts and K/9 (10.53 in the last month), he is well worth the bargain price.
Carlos Pena, 1B, TB Mentioned this guy two weeks ago here, and I’ll do it again. His value has been through the roof with a much improved average and 10 homers in the last month as expected. Still, some owners may be oblivious to his progress considering his overall average isn’t that great. The price is up, but inquire just in case.
Still Kickin’: Veteran Revivals Melvin Mora, 3b, BAL This guy is so predictable. He is always good as a waiver pickup in average leagues to become your best player for a month or so. It is an obvious selection for this category but how can I deny acknowledging his 7 homers, 37 RBI and .404 average in the last month? Only Holliday and perhaps Pujols after today’s two-homer performance have been better recently. He is probably already scooped up but this veteran is definitely still kickin’. I’d trade him if you aren’t passed the deadline.
Youth Movements: Rookies making their mark Daniel Murphy, LF, NYM This guy won’t ever replace David Wright at third base so he made it work in the outfield. It is a good thing he did because his bat is well worth the roster spot. He has been working as the larger part of a platoon with Nick Evans in left field. Murphy has two homers and a .421 average in his first 38 at bats of his career. The 23-year-old came straight from Double-A and could be worth a look if he works his way into full time duty. He is definitely better than Marlon Anderson. The immense opportunity from injury in the Mets outfield has lent us some interesting players in veteran Fernando Tatis and youngsters Evans and Murphy.
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| Last Updated ( Tuesday, 19 August 2008 ) |
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