Let's take an early look at injuries for some hitters with a view toward 2009. During the off season, I tend to look at injuries and rehabilitations at three different phases. The first phase is the current surgery season in October and November. The second occurs when the position players report to spring training in late February. This is the time when you hear news regarding the progress of off-season rehabilitation. Third is late March after significant spring training games have been played. Now for the list:

A) Chase Utley (Philadelphia/second base) - Hip surgery is planned for next week so we will all be monitoring the news and his progress very closely over the course of the winter. It is apparent that the injury affected him most of last season which explains the drop off from his torrid start. The best case scenario sounds like mid-April but no one will know for sure until surgery is performed and the rehabilitation begins. At this point, I am worried because it is his hip. There can be no speculation on Utley's projected 2009 numbers until after the surgery at the earliest. (My 2009 projected fantasy rating is incomplete, see below for rating explanation)

B) Ian Kinsler (Texas/second base) - Kinsler has been approved to resume workouts so I see that as a sign that his hernia surgery went well and he is close to a full recovery. I still want to watch this situation before I am 100% confident. Kinsler was on his way to a breakout fantasy year in 2008. This is a bump that needs to be watched. Right now my expected 2009 projection for Kinsler is similar to his 2008 production where he got very good production from all five fantasy categories. My assumption is that not playing a full season is offset by the uncertain lingering effects from his injury. He is still a premier fantasy second baseman even with this downgrade. (2009 projected fantasy rating is 72)

C) Brandon Phillips (Cincinnati/second base) - Phillips is expected to be 100% healed from a finger injury by spring training. In 2007, Phillips emerged as a fantasy stud  but took a step back in 2008. Still, expectations are high despite the injury. My guess is somewhere between 2007 and 2008 (.275 AVG, 23 HR, 85 RBI, 90 R and 25 SB).  (2009 projected fantasy rating is 71)

D) Jorge Posada (NY Yankees/catcher) - There have been some good signs and vibes after Posada's July shoulder surgery. Communication from Posada himself and Yankee general manager Brian Cashman has been positive regarding a full recovery by March 1, 2009. The fact that they are talking about Jorge being the full time catcher instead of spending time at first base and DH gives me encouragement. Don't get me wrong: you will never see 2007 numbers again. Something like .270 AVG, 18 HR, 75 RBI and 60 R would be my 2009 guess. (2009 projected fantasy rating is 45)

E) Carlos Lee (Houston/outfield) - Lee's finger injury is 100% healed and he will be ready long before the start of spring training. Carlos was having a career MVP type season before the injury and there is no reason why he cannot start 2009 the way he left off. He is one of the premier fantasy players today and that will not change anytime soon. His consistency has been remarkable over the last six years. Expect a full 600 at bats and a 20% increase from his 2008 numbers in the neighborhood of .300 AVE, 33 HR, 115 RBI, 90 R and even a modest 10 SB. (2009 projected fantasy rating is 79) 

F) Rafael Furcal (Free agent/short stop) - Per medical records, it appears that Furcal is fully healed after back surgery. It is a good sign that he came back for four games at the end of last year's regular season and looked OK playing every inning of all nine dodger playoff games ( 31 AB, .258 AVG, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB and 9 R). The one concern is that he had zero stolen bases in those 13 games. For all intents and purposes I am expecting no ill effects, but because it was his back, there is a lingering concern. I would discount a normal Furcal year by 10% with a 20% drop off in stolen bases for 2009. (2009 projected fantasy rating is 56)   

G) Eric Chavez (Oakland/third base) - Chavez's shoulder surgery in mid August seems to have gone well but four surgeries in one year are a big concern. Rehabilitation is ahead of schedule but I would not be overly optimistic. The plan is for Chavez to begin baseball activities in January. The best case is that Chavez might be worth a gamble for 2009 but only after there are positive spring training news and results. In keeper leagues, he certainly would not be part of my plans for 2010 and beyond. (2009 projected fantasy rating is incomplete)

H) Mark Ellis (Oakland/second base) - All reports show that Ellis had successful shoulder surgery in September. It certainly is a good sign that Oakland signed him to a two year, 11 million dollar contract after the surgery but the money has more to do with Ellis's defense then his future offensive numbers. There is injury history here and you cannot expect a 550 at bat season (400 to 450 is more realistic). (2009 projected fantasy rating is 48)

I) Hideki Matsui (NY Yankees/outfield) - Matsui had knee surgery in September that will keep him out of the World Baseball Classic. Whether that fact is a Yankee caution or a real cause for concern is yet to be determined but I would be cautious here. I am not sold that Matsui will ever reach the 100 RBI mark again. (2009 projected fantasy rating is 54) 

J) Rick Ankiel (St. Louis/outfield) - Ankiel had sports hernia surgery in late September and is expected to make a full recovery by February. I am intrigued by Ankiel's potential. He has been very inconsistent so far in his hitting career but I can see the possibility for him reaching the 30 HR, 100 RBI/R plateau down the road. I said potential and I don't expect those numbers next year. A more realistic 25 HR, 80 RBI/R year with a .270 AVG is more plausible for next year. (2009 projected fantasy rating is 58)

K) Kevin Kouzmanoff (San Diego/third base) - Arthroscopic surgery this past week revealed no labrum or rotator cuff damage with a full recovery expected by February. The potential for Kouzmanoff does not blow me away but he is still an above average fantasy third baseman and I expect his 2009 numbers to be the same as 2008 with possibly a modest 10% increase. (2009 projected fantasy rating is 57)

L) Mike Lowell (Boston/third base) - It was originally thought that Lowell's hip injury could have been real serious but the damage was less than expected. A full recovery by the start of spring training is possible but not certain. The situation needs to be monitored due to Lowell's age and the fact that it is the hip. Lowell's fantasy career has been up and down. You never know what to expect so I am only projecting a modest increase over his 2008 numbers. Lowell has never been a premier fantasy player. He has put up mediocre numbers at average and runs and has never stolen any significant bases. (2009 projected fantasy rating is 52)

M) Orlando Hudson (Free agent/second base) - Hudson had wrist surgery in August and seems to have fully healed. Not only do I expect the injury to have no effect on 2009, I would expect a boost of possibly 10% from 2008 to make up for time lost. (2009 projected fantasy rating is 44)

N) Daniel Murphy (NY Mets/outfield) - Murphy is one of my break out targets for 2009 and beyond. He suffered a Grade II hamstring strain in the Arizona Fall league (AFL) where he was tearing it up (.397 AVG., 2 HR, 18 RBI in 15 games). A full recovery is expected in a month but he will not play in the Puerto Rican league this winter. The plan was for him to platoon with Fernando Tatis in left field in 2009 but Murphy was also spending time in the AFL at second base. The Mets are looking to upgrade second base from a very disappointing Luis Castillo but Murphy's defense there has been adequate at best so that might not be a viable option. (2009 projected fantasy rating is 50)

Note on fantasy rating: It is based on assigning point values to each of the five standard fantasy categories from 1 to 25. SB’s are given extra value because the league leaders are at levels that are far greater than the average player. Theoretically the top rating would be 125. Over the past 20 years, Larry Walker had the best fantasy season in 1997. His .366 AVG, 49 HR, 130 RBI, 33 SB and 143 R resulted in a 121 rating.