The hot stove is just starting to burn so let’s take an early winter look at first base. Of course there are a lot of questions that still need to be answered. Injuries need to be sorted out and free agent signings need to be made (Teixeira is the prime example). I always look for very good production across four categories (AVG, HR, RBI and R) at this position with stolen bases being found elsewhere. Chris Davis of Texas and Joey Votto of Cincinnati seem to be the only new impacts at the position. This list includes players that played 20 or more games at first base in the major leagues for 2008. The rankings are based on 2009 projections with extra value given to multi positional players. With the exception of Davis, I don’t see this list changing dramatically if it was for a keeper league.

1) Albert Pujols - St. Louis - Injury concerns were a big question going into 2008 but Albert was able to produce at such a high level that he earned another MVP. Pujols had out-patient, non-ligament, elbow surgery in mid October and all reports point to a full recovery before the start of spring training. Pujols is still the clear #1 choice here. (2009 fantasy rating is 91. See below for rating explanation)

2) Ryan Howard - Philadelphia - Howard is the exception to the four-category rule. His numbers are so good at HR, RBI and R’s that they make up for his mediocre average. (2009 fantasy rating is 88)
 
 

3) Miguel Cabrera - Detroit - It took awhile for Cabrera to adjust to the American league but it finally came. Cabrera’s value is increased if he qualifies at third base in your league (14 games played at third base in 2008). (2009 fantasy rating is 83)

4) Mark Teixeira - Free agent - Where he lands might affect this rating. Home park, AL or NL and batting order protection are all factors. (2009 fantasy rating is 82)

5) Lance Berkman - Houston - Berkman has always been inconsistent. Over the past six seasons his batting average has fluctuated at least 22 points every year. (2009 fantasy rating is 81) 

6) Prince Fielder - Milwaukee - Fielder’s power numbers have gone up and down the last three seasons. I expect a slight increase in his 2009 numbers from 2008, based on his historical 2007. 
(2009 fantasy rating is 75)

7) Justin Morneau - Minnesota - Consistent with the power numbers but combined that with  huge fluctuations in batting average. Morneau had knee problems at the end of 2008 but off season rest should take care of the problem according to the team. (2009 fantasy rating is 73)

8) Adrian Gonzalez - San Diego - Gonzalez would bolt up this list if he ever left Petco (worst hitters park in the majors by far). (2009 fantasy rating is 73)

9) Kevin Youkilis - Boston - Fantasy value will increase if he is moved to third base to make room for a free agent (Teixeira?). Youkilis also qualifies at third base. (2009 fantasy rating is 72)  

10) Garret Atkins - Colorado - Be very careful here. There is a good chance that Atkins will be traded out of Coor’s field. One of my key off season projects is to search and identify all potential new players who can get  400 plus at bats in the Rockies lineup.  I am still crying over Holliday. Atkins also qualifies at third base. (2009 fantasy rating is 71) 

11) Derek Lee - Chicago Cubs - Power numbers are not what they used to be and I don’t think you will see anything close to 2005 again. (2009 fantasy rating is 70)

12) Joey Votto - Cincinnati - The emergence of Votto was the 2008 fantasy story at first base. I am cautious here in 2009 because of the team and the lineup. (2009 fantasy rating is 69)

13) Carlos Pena - Tampa Bay - Pena’s dip in average last year worries me and I see a possibility of his production reverting back to his Tiger days. Maybe not that drastic but I am concerned.
(2009 fantasy rating is 66)

14) Chris Davis - Texas - Incredible second half debut for Davis. From a keeper’s league standpoint, I would move Davis three positions up on this list. (2009 fantasy rating is 65)

15) Carlos Delgado - Mets - Call me a Delgado critic. I thought he was done in 2007 and  I never saw 2008 coming. I am predicting 2009 to be somewhere in between the two years. (2009 fantasy rating is 62)

16) Aubrey Huff - Baltimore - Sorry. I don’t believe 2008. Those numbers are discounted going into 2009. Huff also qualifies at third base which does increase his value. (2009 fantasy rating is 62)

17) James Loney - Dodgers - We now get into the area of the good hitting, non power, first baseman. You won’t find many 30 plus home run guys anymore, and if you do,  there tends to be serious batting average and/or run issues. (2009 fantasy rating is 62)

18) Jorge Cantu - Tampa Bay - Nice surprise last year. Jury is still out on whether he can become a consistent fantasy player. Cantu also qualifies at third base. (2009 fantasy rating is 61) 

19) Conor Jackson - Arizona - Sean Casey reincarnated?. Jackson also qualifies in the outfield. (2009 fantasy rating is 61)

20) Andy Laroche - Pittsburgh - Nice player on a horrible team. (2009 fantasy rating is 60)

NEXT WEEK: SECOND BASE

Note on fantasy rating: It is based on assigning point values to each of the five standard fantasy categories from 1 to 25. SB’s are given extra value because the league leaders are at levels that are far greater than the average player. Theoretically the top rating would be 125. Over the past 20 years, Larry Walker had the best fantasy season in 1997. His .366 AVG, 49 HR, 130 RBI, 33 SB and 143 R resulted in a 121 rating.