In this piece we’re going to take a look at players that should experience better numbers then they had last year.  Some of the players on this list stunk up the joint last year, some had nice rookie seasons, and some might be ready for a breakout season.  Whatever the case, don’t sleep on these guys.

Brett Anderson, SP – Oakland A’s | 11-11 | 4.06 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 150 K | 45 BB |

Normally I wouldn’t promote a pitcher in his sophomore year, but Mr. Anderson’s rookie season was more impressive then you think.  Posting an 11-11 record with a 4.06 ERA might not necessarily sound like anything special, but dig deeper into his peripherals and you will find a 7.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 3.3 K/BB.  His 2.3 BB/9 for the year were in line with his minor league totals (1.9 BB/9).  It’s not unusual a rookie pitcher fades over the second half, but that wasn’t the case for Mr. Anderson.  Check out the splits:

Pre-All Star:   87.1 IP | 5-7 | 4.64 ERA | 1.37 WHIP | 6.6 K/9 | 2.6 BB/9 | 2.6 K/BB |

Post-All Star:  88.0 IP | 6-4 | 3.48 ERA | 1.19 WHIP | 8.8 K/9 | 2.0 BB/9 | 4.3 K/BB |

Primarily a groundball pitcher, Anderson was able to increase his groundballs induced from 49% to 56% over the second half.  With his strong second half last year, (9 of his 13 quality starts for the year were in the second half) I’m all in with Mr. Anderson, even though I was from the beginning last year.

Cliff Lee, SP – Seattle Mariners |14-13 | 3.22 ERA | 1.24 WHIP | 181 K | 43 BB |

He’s been recently traded to the best defensive team in baseball, and he’s in his contract year.  Really, that’s all I should have to say.  The 30 year old has just entered his prime, posting his highest strikeout totals since 2003.  After his trade to the 8th best defensive team last year, Lee went 7-4, upping his strikeouts to 8.4 K/9, and lowering his walks to 1.1 BB/9.  The trade to Seattle now brings him to the league’s best defensive team.  If he can maintain anything close to the 8 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9, you can expect Lee to push for 20 wins and contend for the Cy Young Award.

Brandon League, RP – Seattle Mariners | 3-6 | 4.58 ERA | 1.25 WHIP | 76 K | 21 BB |

I admit, as a Jays fan, I am a little biased with Brandon League.  I think it’s the combination of the glasses he wears, and just his bug-eyed stare when he’s on the mound that makes him look like a crazy psycho.  Regardless, Brandon League put up some crazy good numbers despite the inflated 4.58 ERA, setting career highs in strikeouts – 9.2 K/9, while cutting down his walks to 2.5 BB/9, giving him a career high 3.6 K/BB.  League had a rough start to the 2009 season, issuing 3 free passes per 9 innings, but was able to reduce the walks to 2 BB/9 over the second half, while becoming increasingly dominant (10.4 K/9 over second half).  The increased strikeouts in 2009 can be attributed to League adding another pitch to his arsenal – the splitter which co-incidentally ended up being his most effective pitch.  League induces a lot of groundballs when he’s not striking guys out, but was abnormally hittable last year.  With League moving to arguably the best defensive team in baseball, expect his ERA to revert back towards 2008’s.

League’s role will probably begin in middle relief.  David Aardsma had a very impressive season last year and just recently avoided arbitration, so the job is his to lose.  But unless he can control the 4.3 walks per game and limit the amount of flyballs induced (53.9% flyballs) he’ll be a risky play.  League should eventually settle in 8th inning duties and at worst become a source of vulture wins with very useful numbers.  If an injury or blowup were to occur with Aardsma, you could see League become a sneaky source for saves.  For those in deeper leagues, he’s someone to keep in mind.

Chris Perez, RP – Cleveland Indians | 1-2 | 4.26 ERA | 1.19 WHIP | 68 K | 27 BB |

The Indians will desperately try and trade current closer Kerry Wood, and if they can, will hand the reigns over to Chris Perez.  Perez struggled to find his control while with the Cardinals last year, and was subsequently traded to the Indians where he racked up a 10.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and 3.2 K/BB.  If given a shot, Perez won’t put up a ton of saves for a rebuilding Cleveland team, but shouldn’t hurt your team as much as some other closers would.

Max Scherzer, SP – Detroit Tigers | 9-11 | 4.12 ERA | 1.34 WHIP | 174 K | 63 BB |

Scherzer was relatively healthy this year, starting 30 games in 2009, and posted solid peripherals all year: A 9.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and 2.8 K/BB.  Those numbers remained consistent between the 1st and 2nd half, except for the ERA split – 3.64 ERA over the 1st half vs. 4.74 ERA over the 2nd half.  The 24 year old was the victim of some bad luck over the second half, which helped inflate the ERA.

Scherzer should experience more success next year, thanks to the trade out of Chase Field, but he also needs to figure out how to take that next step.  Scherzer’s main issue is the inability to pitch deep into games.  If he can resolve this we should see a breakout year for the former first rounder and former top MLB prospect.

Kevin Slowey, SP – Minnesota Twins | 10-3 | 4.86 ERA | 1.41 WHIP | 75 K | 15 BB |

Slowey, who finished up with a poor ERA last year thanks to a wrist injury is healthy and ready to go for spring training.  Prior to the injury, Slowey pushed his strikeout rate over 7.00, and maintained the excellent control he’s been known for.  The only drawback is that he’s more prone to inducing flyballs, which means he’s more prone to the long ball.  We’ll chalk up the loss of velocity to the wrist injury.  Monitor his fastball velocity in spring training, and if it’s back up to the 89-90 average, bid with confidence.

Scott Baker, SP – Minnesota Twins | 15-9 | 4.37 ERA | 1.10 WHIP | 162 K | 48 BB |

Baker’s numbers are somewhat skewed thanks to a poor first half which saw him go 7-7 with a 5.42 ERA.  He did experience some bad luck over the first half, but a lot of it was his own doing, giving up the longball a little too often (1.6 HR/9), and unable to strand runners on base.  He faired much better over the second half, going 8-2 with a 3.28 ERA, while cutting down his homerun rate to 0.9 HR/9, and improving his strand rate.  Look for Baker to bounce back this year.

John Danks, SP – Chicago White Sox | 13-11 | 3.77 ERA | 1.28 WHIP | 149 K | 73 BB |

Danks had a disappointing season last year after many pegged him as someone ready to break out.  Part of the problem was due to the increase in HR’s surrendered, which jumped up almost a full HR higher per 9 to 1.26.  Oddly enough, he induced more groundballs (44%), but also gave up more flyballs (40% from 2008’s 35%).  He also had difficulties pitching at home (5-7 with a 4.48 ERA) after doing relatively well in 2008.  He really only had one terrible month back in May, so look for those to normalize, and for Danks to have a rebound year.

Carl Pavano, SP – Minnesota Twins | 14-12 | 5.10 ERA | 1.37 WHIP | 147 K | 39 BB |

Once the victim of severe razzings from yours truly, his numbers last year showed me the man does have some skills, flashing a decent 6.6 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9.  His slider and changeup were very effective pitches for him last year, while his fastball was another story.  Pavano was the victim of some poor luck – but he seems to be mixing his pitches well.  He just has the propensity of relying on his fastball a little too much when men are on base, which seem to lead to homeruns with runners on base.  If he can start relying on his off-speed pitches more in these situations, Pavano could turn out to be another Kevin Slowey.

Kam Mickolio, RP – Baltimore Orioles | 0-2 | 2.63 ERA | 1.32 WHIP | 14 K | 7 BB|

Mickolio is a big body who’s fastball averages in the mid 90’s.  He doesn’t have much left to prove in the minors (10.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 3.3 K/BB), and in his brief stint with the O’s last year, more than held his own.  The 6’9 beast should have a spot in the bullpen this year, and if he does, could end up with some vulture wins.  Those in deep leagues may want to take a look.

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