As I was looking over the American League, wondered to myself, if I could choose one person who I think are good buys and one who I wouldn’t draft or trade away if I owned them in a keeper league, who would they be?  Here are my random thoughts on each team.  All average draft positions (ADP) rankings courtesy of Mock Draft Central. Agree? Disagree?  State your case in the comments section!

New York Yankees

Good Buy – Nick Johnson, 1B/DH

Johnson’s main concern is not the lack of production, but rather the inability to stay healthy.  If Johnson can stay healthy, 25 HR is not out of the question.  The Yankees plan on using him at the DH slot, so his chances of staying healthy are increased.  He’ll still have his RBI opportunities in a loaded Yankees lineup and will provide you with a good average (and great OBP).

Good Bye – AJ Burnett, SP

Burnett’s declining skills and inconsistencies continued through 2009.  He’s seen a decline in strikeouts the past three years and an increase in walks and homeruns allowed over the past two years.  Much of his troubles existed when Posada was calling the game, while his successful stints were with Jose Molina.  Now that Molina is with the Blue Jays, Burnett and Posada could butt heads yet again.  There is a chance Burnett could experience success again, but I’d rather find out as a spectator.  To me, he’s the right handed version of Scott Kazmir.

Baltimore Orioles

Good Buy – Brian Matusz, SP

My early candidate for AL Rookie of the Year, Matusz could have a Brett Anderson-type campaign this year.  The 4.63 ERA last year also brings down his value slightly, but the skills were there.  He just needs to control the homerun ball, and increase the amount of groundballs induced back to his minor league levels.  Like Anderson, he’s a very polished pitcher and will have success this year.

Good Bye – Kevin Millwood, SP

His 3.68 ERA might look nice, but Millwood’s .279 BABIP was quite a few points below his career norm, meaning we should see an ERA north of 4.00.  The decline in strikeouts and spike in walks and homeruns are enough to scare the crap out of me.  On top of that, he owns a career 4.71 ERA pitching in Camden Yards.  If you sold high last year on Millwood good for you; he’s simply filler for the Orioles until their future aces are ready for the big show.

Tampa Bay Rays

Good Buy – Kelly Shoppach, C

In two-catcher leagues, Shoppach deserves to be drafted for his power potential.  Just a year removed from blasting 21 HR for the Indians, Shoppach started off poorly in 2009 and ended up sitting out a lot of games and was eventually shipped to the Rays.  There’s reason for a little optimism as Shoppach’s batting eye actually improved over 2009 and he had some poor luck with batted balls.  Because Navarro’s still in Tampa Bay, Shoppach could be in a platoon situation, but he has the skills to make Navarro a backup catcher.

Good Bye – Jason Bartlett, SS

As long as you go into the season looking for a good hitting shortstop who will give you 25-30 stolen bases, you will not be disappointed.  More than likely, most will be looking for the shortstop that can steal bases and improve on the 14 HR he hit last year.  The power came out of nowhere, and could be the result of an improved batting eye and flyball % – but two years removed from similar peripherals showed a shortstop with little power.  Bartlett doesn’t make a horrible selection come draft day, but draft for the good batting average and stolen bases and you won’t be disappointed – he just wont’ be on any of my teams.

Boston Red Sox

Good Buy – John Lackey, SP

Signed by Boston in the off season, Lackey slides in as the #3 starter behind new stud Jon Lester and mainstay Josh Beckett.  You know what you’re getting with Lackey – a guy that can strike out 7 per 9 IP, walk around 2 batters per nine and give you an ERA between 3.70 and 3.85, and he won’t be relied on as the anchor of the Red Sox staff like he was with the Angels.  Instead of picking up Matt Cain (ADP is 91.9) three rounds earlier, pick up Lackey who will give you comparable results (126.4).

Good Bye – David Ortiz, DH

Although there was much debate whether Ortiz’s power was done, Ortiz proved a lot of us wrong (myself included), hitting 28 HR and driving in 99 RBI.  The skills however are declining as Ortiz was consistently beaten by the fastball last year.  He does more harm then good against southpaws and could end up in a Jason Kubel platoon-type situation.  Still a good late round pick, but a Yahoo rank of 126 is way too risky.

Toronto Blue Jays

Good Buy – Shaun Marcum, SP

They say bad things happen in 3’s, and that’s what happened when Marcum, McGowan and Litsch all went down with injury last year.  One has to wonder if the fate of Roy Halladay would’ve been different had the pitching staff been healthy.  Regardless, Marcum now becomes the new “ace” of the young Jays staff, having established himself as a nice #2 starter for the Jays before falling to TJ surgery.  If Marcum can get back to his 2008 ways (3.39 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 3 BB/9, 2.5 K/BB) he’ll make a nice cheap pickup as he’s currently not being drafted in most standard leagues.

Good Bye – Scott Downs/Jason Frasor/Kevin Gregg, RP

The Toronto closer situation got even messier with the Kevin Gregg signing.  Downs, who was terrific in non-save situations, blew 4 saves in 13 tries.  Jason Frasor who was equally as terrific in non-save situations blew 3 saves in 14 tries.  Kevin Gregg who had the least control of the three, blew 7 saves in 23 tries, but showed the strikeout potential you want to see in a closer.  My guess is Gregg gets the first shot with Frasor then Downs next in line.  Either way, I don’t need the headache of trying to figure out who will run away with the job, if any.

Cleveland Indians

Good Buy – Shin Soo Choo, LF/RF

Still not getting the respect he deserves, everyone seems to think Shin Soo Choo’s 20/20 season last year was a fluke.  If you lurk the forums, you’ll know that I projected a 20/20 season from Mr. Choo last year, and he didn’t disappoint hitting .300 to go along with the 20 HR & 21 SB.  Look for Choo to at least replicate last year’s numbers knowing further growth could happen as he turns 27 this season.

Good Bye – Fausto Carmona, SP

I suppose if you hold on to Francisco Liriano hoping for a bounce back, an argument can be made to hold on to Carmona, but I don’t buy it.  Two straight years posting walk rates over 5 doesn’t bode well for success.  I see him being owned in several deep leagues I’m in, while higher upside guys like Jonathan Niese & Hector Rondon sit on the wire.

Detroit Tigers

Good Buy - Max Scherzer, SP

In order for Scherzer to take that next step forward he will need to be more efficient with his pitches.  Now that the hype is pretty much gone, Scherzer will be available to you at a reasonable price, and expect him to improve on his 4.12 ERA and wins.  If he does fall to you, he’s a good pickup, but don’t reach for him as he does come with question marks regarding health, courtesy of a spike in innings pitched last year.

Good Bye – Brandon Inge, 3B

With Inge losing C eligibility this year, his value takes a hit.  Expect a regression in homeruns (to about 20), while maintaining a poor batting average.  He’ll do you more harm than good.

Kansas City Royals

Good Buy – Alex Gordon, 3B

A torn labrum cost him a couple months last year, and when he came back he went on to hit .252 with 5 HR, 19 RBI and 4 SB.  Before the 2009 season, he was showing a two-year upwards-trend, so expect him to reach the 20+ HR plateau as he turns 26 this year.  His value is as low as ever right now (ADP is 221.8), and we’re talking about a former #1 prospect here.

Good Bye – Zack Greinke, SP

Zack Greinke’s ADP is currently 29.7, while guys like Justin Verlander (45.6) and Jon Lester (59.8) are going a few rounds later.  If Greinke strand rate normalizes, and I think it will, his ERA will increase with it, meaning he’ll have virtually the same value as Verlander and Lester.  Wouldn’t you rather draft a big bat at that position and a less risky pick in Verlander or Lester a few rounds later?

Seattle Mariners

Good Buy - Milton Bradley, LF or the #3-4 hitters

With Figgins signing on with the Mariners, the M’s now have Ichiro Suzuki and Figgins as their 1-2 hitters.  This bodes very well for who I believe will be the #3 hitter, Milton Bradley.  Bradley does have the potential to hit 20 HR as he did in 2008, and is being forgotten on draft day.  There will be plenty of RBI opportunities for whomever the #3-4 batters.  I’m assuming it’s going to be Bradley and Gutierrez (though Lopez is another possibility).

Good Bye – Casey Kotchman, 1B

If you’re expecting the power to come, it’s not; even at age 27.  51.4 % of the balls he makes contact with are groundballs while 29.5% are flyballs – not what you expected from the former top prospect who was once projected to hit 20-25 HR.

Oakland A’s

Good Buy – Michael Wuertz, RP

You could do a lot worse choosing Wuertz with the last pick of your draft to find out if he can repeat his dominance, virtually finishing the season with as many strikeouts as starting pitchers like Nick Blackburn and Jon Garland.  Wuertz posted an 11.7 K/9 rate last year in 78.2 IP.  It is possible it’s just batters not used to facing Wuertz (who was previously in the NL) and not sustainable.  But what if it is?

Good Bye – Andrew Bailey, RP

Color me skeptical on Andrew Bailey.  It’s not that I don’t think he can replicate last year’s performance.  He’s currently being drafted in the 10th round (125.8), which isn’t a terrible position.  However, look at his walk rate last year (2.59) compared to his minor league walk rates over the past couple years - 4.6, 4.2 and 3.8 (not counting his 8 inning stint in AAA).  Again, he may have taken that next step forward at the major league level, but I’d rather spend my money later in the draft for a safer pick – even if it means getting a closer I know who posts a 4 BB/9.

Chicago White Sox

Good Buy – Juan Pierre, LF/CF

The 32 year old outfielder was traded to the White Sox over the winter, and will bat lead off.  Last year, Pierre hit .308 while stealing 30 bases in just 380 AB, filling in for Manny who was serving a 50 game suspension.  I was able to snag him off of the free agent list in our 18 team dynasty league.  Let others grab Nyjer Morgan at 129.7, Rajai Davis at 162.4, or even Julio Borbon at 181.5, hoping for a repeat performance this year, while you grab Juan Pierre (ADP 216.7) knowing you’re getting a guy that should post a .300 average, and 35-40 SB.

Good Bye – Mark Buerhle, SP

Pitcher A – 13 W, 3.84 ERA, 4.4 K/9, 1.9 BB/9

Pitcher B – 15 W, 3.49 ERA, 4.4 K/9, 1.1 BB/9

Pitcher C – 11 W, 4.03 ERA, 4.3 K/9, 1.8 BB/9

Mark Buehrle’s ADP was 247, Joel Pineiro at 279.6, and Nick Blackburn at 334.7.  Don’t pay for the name or the perfect game last year which is what you’re doing drafting Buerhle 3+ rounds earlier then the other two.  Oh, and if you were wondering, the pitchers stat lines are in order I listed the pitcher.

Minnesota Twins

Good Buy – JJ Hardy, SS

JJ Hardy had a miserable campaign last year, after many counted him on being a breakout candidate.  A brief stint in AAA in August showed that the power did not completely disappear.  Hardy was shipped out in exchange for Carlos Gomez over the off season, and will be available to you at a huge discount (ADP 272.3), and should see a return to the 20 HR mark.

Good Bye – Joe Mauer, C

Mauer broke out in a big way with his power, hitting 28 HR, with 96 RBI, while maintaining an incredible .365 average.  Mauer will now be drafted as a 1st rounder with good reason.  But if the power doesn’t hold up, he returns to being a 5th round value.  In keeper leagues, you can probably ask for the world and get it.

Texas Rangers

Good Buy – Chris Davis, 1B

With an ADP of 158.9, Chris Davis seems like a good buy, although the word is out (stock has climbed up 40 positions since I originally wrote this article).  Yes we are all aware of the huge 1st half struggles where he hit an abysmal .202 while striking out 44% of the time, but he did come back strong over the second half, hitting .308 and making much better contact with the ball.  Davis should have a much better 2010 campaign – an average in the .260’s with 30 HR’s is a reasonable expectation, knowing there’s potential for more.

Good Bye – Neftali Feliz, SP/RP

My worry is that if indeed he’s a starter this year (and all indications are that he will be groomed as one) most will expect numbers we saw last year as a reliever.  Feliz did have his struggles in the minors with control, so bear that in mind when drafting him.  There’s no denying his upside and he makes a “good buy” in keeper leagues, but in one year leagues he won’t be on any of my teams this year because of where I’d have to draft him for only 150 innings.

Los Angeles Angels

Good Buy – Torii Hunter, CF

Always underrated, Hunter will flirt with 20/20 again this year.  He actually hit for more power than last year, so there’s no reason to think he’s going to slow down.  Shin-Soo Choo is being drafted at 68.3, while Hunter is going at 96.3 – three rounds later.

Good Bye – Joe Saunders, SP

Wins are a hard thing to predict as pitchers don’t have control over what their defense and supporting offense do in a game.  Paying for wins is something you’d be doing with Joe Saunders, who despite posting a 17 and 16 win season two years in a row, will not help you in much else.  His ADP is currently sitting at 268 – not a terrible rank, but do you really want to go chasing wins with a soft-tossing lefty whose skills have been on a three-year decline, while higher upside guys like Joe Blanton (291) and Aaron Harang (303) are being drafted later?

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