Where the radar gun play ring all day (na na na).  You can bet Dave Duncan will be at it again, working his magic with the newly acquired Brad Penny and whoever might turn out to be the 5^th starter.  The Cubbies rotation comes in second, which seems to be a pattern in this age-old rivalry.

1. St. Louis Cardinals

You already know how much I like Adam Wainwright…that remains the same, I think he’s a top 10 caliber starter.  And very close to that is Carpenter; if it wasn’t for his injury history I would be buying all of his 2009 season.  Both players present solid ratios, win totals, and quality starts, with Wainwright getting my nod between the two based on his improved strikeouts.  Lohse had a solid first season with the Cardinals in 2008, not sure what happened last year. I think he turns it around a little bit and brings his ERA back closer to 4.00…late round flyer in deep leagues.  Brady Penny is gonna catch the Duncan magic this year, I feel it, hello 2007 season (16-4, 3.03, 1.31); his lack of strikeouts keep him middle tier at best, however.  And then for the 5^th starting spot…ummm…doesn’t really matter because you’re not going to draft whoever it may be – let them all prove it on the field first.

2. Chicago Cubs

I hate me some Big Z, but for some reason people keep drafting him early on.  It’s that 4.00+ BB/9 that does it for me, not to mention his ERA is always pushing 4.00.  We did see improvement in his K/9, but I agree with Dan (as seen in his Top 150 Pitchers) that both Lilly and Dempster are more valuable.  Lilly had a superb season in the ERA/WHIP department last year.  His Ks have always been solid, and actually so has his WHIP; it’s been the long ball that’s gotten him in trouble but he finally cut down on that last year, resulting in the drastic ERA improvement.  With all that said, he’s had 20+ QS each of the last 3 seasons. He’s rehabbing from shoulder surgery and could miss the first couple weeks of the season, but I’m buying him as a #3 starter in your rotation.  Dempster’s a guy I believed in after his 2008 season and he actually came through pretty well, not living up fully to 2008, but I think his 2009 numbers were very respectable and that’s what I’ll be paying for in 2010.  Randy Wells had a superb rookie campaign, but do take notice how he tailed off in the second half (2.72 ERA, 1.12 WHIP vs. 3.32 ERA, 1.41 WHIP); I’m thinking this will lead to a sophomore slump, until he can prove his longevity.  Tom Gorzelanny makes me call dinosaurs; there’s no need to pay attention to anybody else in the starting department on this club.

3. Houston Astros

I actually think Roy boy can be a buy-low candidate this year; 2009 was no doubt his worst year to date, so I would take advantage of that…let’s just hope it’s not the trend toward inevitable decline already.  You can still expect ~7.00 K/9 with a solid WHIP and I would bank on an ERA under 4.00.  Wandy had a HUGE breakout year in 2009, but already being 31 years old, I would let others pay for his ’09 stats as last year was most likely his peak season.  Brett Myers spits hot fire (solid K/9, though it’s declined over the years), but with that comes erratic control and trouble with the longball that have pushed his ERA above 4.00 the past three seasons.  I still think he’s draftable given his Ks and the season he’s capable of (read: 2005), but make him bottom of your rotation at best.  I think Bud Norris brings a lot of potential to the table, being just 24, as half of his starts last year were of the quality type.  He’s got a solid K/9 with the usual high young gun BB percentage, but a late round gander could most definitely pay dividends.  As for Paulino and Moehler…well, I hope I’m in a league where opposing owners are drafting these players.

4. Cincinnati Reds

Aaron Harangutan has had a rough couple of years (6-17 and 6-14 the last two), but taking a closer look we see that he’s never had an ERA better than 3.73.  His Ks have been there, but this is another situation where I think his ship has sailed with his better seasons behind him.  Edinson Volquez is on the 60-day DL and is most likely out until August so I wouldn’t put any draft value on him, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to stay ahead of your peers and keep an eye out on his status around the all-star break to be the first to jump on him on the waiver wire.  Arroyo surprisingly is not that bad of an option, putting together solid quality start numbers over the past few years (23 last year, did I miss something???).  His K/9 has been inconsistent as hell, but with decent ratios and the potential for 15 wins, I’ll bite late in the draft when the munchies are kicking in.  Cueto started off hot last year (8-6, 3.62 ERA) but then that second half (3-5, 5.81 ERA) made me vomit.  Still young and still with high-K potential, he’s worth a late round flier in deep leagues.  Aroldis Chapman is a highly-touted prospect at the age of 22, but unless I’m in a keeper league I would let him prove himself first (four-year stint in Cuba’s National Series: 24-21 record, 3.72 ERA, 379 Ks in 341.2 innings, but also 210 BBs).  Homer Bailey was also a highly-touted prospect, but he has shown us zero consistency over the years, so do please steer clear.

5. Milwaukee Brewers

Gallardo and Wolf are the only draftable options on the Brew Crew; everyone else is just pig fodder.  Gallardo, 24, recovered nicely from his injury-riddled 2008 season and there’s nothing to not like about the guy – he can easily be a top tier starter on your team.  Wolf’s 24 quality starts last year were very impressive, and being a seasoned vet with a career 4.13 ERA and 7.42 K/9, he is definitely ownable in all leagues.  I don’t know how Dougie D put up 22 QS last year, but that 1.50+ WHIP over the past 3 seasons is not a good sign.  I would avoid him and the remaining projected starters on this staff at all costs.  Manny Parra has just been a letdown after letdown, no more fooling around, prove it on the diamond first my friend.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Honestly, I’m not drafting a soul from this squad.  Not a single starter had over 6.00 K/9 last season, and that’s just unacceptable.  Maholm showed promise after ’08 with 19 QS, but let’s face it, he’s never had more than 10 wins (who really has while pitching for Pitt???  Oh that’s right, Ohlendorf and Duke had 11…excuse me) and not-so-hot ratios.  Duke had a terrible second half last year (5.14 ERA vs. 3.29 pre all-star), which is pretty much his career norm.  Zzzz…zzzz…and I just fell asleep looking at the rest of these guys.  Ohlendorf could eventually provide some sort of value, but he’s waiver wire material at best.  Bottom line – pass on all these guys when draft day comes.

And don’t draft Canadiens.

Comments (1)

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Ian Fergusson said:

	... Dempster is Canadian but you can draft him because he's not Canadien?
	report abuse vote down vote up

March 03, 2010
Votes: -1