A look at Javier Vazquez and what can be expected of him following his being traded to the Yankees.

Not many pitchers can claim a career year at the ripe ol’ age of 33, but Javier vazquez can. a move from the AL and hitter-friendly US Cellular Field (a perennial top 10 in ESPN’s park factors) combined with a shift in his arsenal proved enough to make 2009 his best season as a major league starter.

Vazquez had some quality years with the Expos (remember them?), right out of the gate.  In 1998 as a 21-year-old, he burst onto the scene not so much as a dominant K-man as he’s known today, but as a pillar of durability – how many rookies do you know who lasted 172.1 IP? That durability has stood the test of time (12 years to be exact), as vazquez has pitched 2490 major league innings and averaged 207.5 innings per year.

Not that Vazquez wasn’t a “K-man” from the start; his rookie year K/9 was 7.26, which isn’t too shabby considering his high inning count and the major league average of 6.62 that year. His rate dipped in ’99 but climbed each of the next two years, reaching 8.37 in 2001, the first year that vazquez topped 200 Ks. That year he also posted his still-standing career high 16 wins; his 3.42 ERA and 1.08 WHIP are worth mentioning as well.

Two years later, in his last year with Montreal (and fourth straight year with 200+ IP), Vazquez posted a 3.24 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 241 strikeouts (9.40 K/9). The Yankees took notice and traded for the young hurler. Cue the un-career year.

Vazquez went 14-10, but with a 4.94 ERA and only 150 strikeouts (6.82 K/9), his lowest total (and rate) since ’98 and ’99 (rookie and sophomore years). At season’s end, the Bombers promptly flipped Vazquez and others to the Diamondbacks for Randy Johnson. Javy had another so-so year while with Arizona, going 11-15 with a 4.42 ERA.

Again lasting only a year with a new team, Vazquez was traded to the Chicago White Sox. During his three-year tenure on the Southside, he went 42-34 with a cumulative 4.40 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. After the 2008 season he was traded to Atlanta where he would enjoy his best season yet.

Vazquez posted career lows in ERA (2.87) and WHIP (1.03). He also posted a career high K/9 (9.77) and was .04 of his career low BB/9 of 1.77. Other career lows included HR/9 (0.82), opponent Swing% (47.1%) and opponent Contact% (73.3%). That Contact% was the lowest among all qualified major league starters. With so many career bests, some regression was certainly to be expected come 2010.

Vazquez’s league-leading Contact% could very well be the result of retooling his pitching repertoire; he threw 10% fewer fastballs than he did in ’08, while his slider, changeup and curve all saw a 1.4 – 2.0% increase in usage. However, the dynamics of each pitch didn’t change much, which makes me think hitters were simply thrown off by his new approach, something that could be picked up on come 2010. And now he’s got the homer-haven that is Yankee Stadium to deal with.

It’s no secret that the Yankees’ new home was a dear, dear friend of the long ball, and barring any movement of the fences, I doubt that changes next season.  According to HitTracker, Vazquez gives up nearly as many homers to left field as he does to right, so he shouldn’t be drastically affected by the short porch in right, but expect his homers-allowed to be a little more skewed in that direction. His HR/9 is certainly bound to creep back over 1.00, and his total HR count could certainly rival his career high (35, with the Dbacks).

Like I said, Vazquez’s 2009 was filled with so many career bests that a repeat performance would have been incredibly unlikely, and now that he’s calling Yankee Stadium home and pitching primarily to AL teams, I expect nothing better than a 4.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. But as far as wins go, that high-powered offense could carry him to match his career high of 16.

P.S. – Braves fans, you can calm down. The team saves about $8 million in this deal, money they can use to perhaps get another bat (not just Troy Glaus). Melky Cabrera’s certainly not the big bat that the OF needed, but he’s only 25 and has yet to reach his prime. The real prize in the deal is Arodys Vizcaino, who lit up Class A lineups with an awesome 11.09 K/9 and very respectable 3.19 BB/9. He’s only 19, and I’m looking forward to getting out to watch him throw at some point next year; though he's a couple years away from the majors, he's got true ace potential.

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