In this piece we’re going to take a look at players that should experience better numbers then they had last year.  Some of the players on this list stunk up the joint last year, some had nice rookie seasons, and some might be ready for a breakout season.  Whatever the case, don’t sleep on these guys.

Chris Davis, 1B – Texas Rangers – 2009 – | .238 | 21 HR | 59 RBI | 0 SB |

Last year’s sexy pick turned out to be one of the year’s ugliest busts, hitting .238 with 21 HR and 59 RBI last year.  A brief stint in Triple-A occurred after the rough start, but he got the call-up once again in September.  He had more success the second time around, making better contact with the ball, and averaged .308 over that time.  However, the better contact rate sapped out some of his power (6 HR in 133 AB).  He still hasn’t shown that he can take a walk, but has shown plate patience in the minors, and is a career .300 hitter.  Let’s chalk up 2009 as a “sophomore slump”, which gives you a chance to get him on the cheap as his stock has really taken a hit.  Defensively, he loses 3B-eligibility this year, and be aware that his likely position in the future is as a DH.  For those in one-year leagues, I’d be comfortable grabbing him in the 11th or 12th round, and would expect a 2010 return of a more respectable .275 – .285 average, knowing he has 40 HR upside.

Gordon Beckham 3B/SS – Chicago White Sox – 2009 - | .270 | 14 HR | 63 RBI | 7 SB |

I’m the first to admit that I’ve had a man crush on Mr. Beckham for a couple years now.  In fact, I got a lot of flack before the start of last season for trading away 2 of my hottest prospects in Clayton Kershaw & Cameron Maybin, plus my 17th waiver pick for Shin Soo Choo, Scott Baker and his 1st waiver pick.  Everyone in our 18 team keeper league was one step short of calling it a veto, but I was ready to take a run at the title, and the reason why I pulled the trade off was the fact that Beckham was on the wire.  There was one caveat in our deal however:  I told the other GM I was trading with that should the trade not be pushed through in time, he had to pick up Gordon Beckham with his 1st pick.  An email would be sent to the commish explaining that was who I intended to get with my 1st waiver priority.  Either way, I got him, and couldn’t be happier (although the future says he won’t qualify at SS anymore - kind of a bummer).  I will stop babbling now as you’re probably saying “who gives a crap”.  Beckham, who hit 14 HR in just 378 AB last year, should easily surpass those totals next year and enter 20 HR territory.  There might be some who fear the sophomore jinx, but all Beckham has done his whole career is rake. Even better, if he doesn’t already have 2B eligibility, he will shortly after the season starts, as he’s penciled in as the starting 2B thanks to a trade that will see Mark Teahen man 3B.

Adrian Beltre, 3B – Boston Red Sox – 2009 - | .265 | 8 HR | 44 RBI | 13 SB |

Now that we know he’s signed with Boston, Beltre becomes a sexy sleeper pick as he joins a stacked Boston Red Sox lineup.  The 31 year old was injured last year, but prior to that was a consistent 25 HR hitter.  Now that he’s moved to the friendlier confines known as Fenway Park, look for Beltre to knock 30 HR next year.

Matt LaPorta, 1B/OF – Cleveland Indians – 2009 - | .254 | 7 HR | 21 RBI | 2 SB |

LaPorta had a rough start to his rookie campaign last year, hitting only .190, with 1 HR, 4 RBI before being demoted back to AAA.  He got called up again in August and stuck around, fairing much better, hitting .273 with 6 HR and 17 RBI.  LaPorta still has his issues however.  He struck out a ton (20.4%) last year and barely took a walk (6%).  His minor league numbers show he does have good plate patience (minor league career 13%), and his 2nd half power ratios suggest 20+ HR potential for next year.  Defensively, his future looks to be at RF or 1B.

Julio Borbon, OF – Texas Rangers – 2009 - | .312 | 4 HR | 20 RBI | 19 SB |

Slotted as the starting CF (Hamilton will reportedly move to LF), Borbon will provide you with a .300 avg and 35+ SB.  Just remember that Borbon provided the above stat line in just 157 AB.  Averaged out to 600 AB, that’s 72 SB.  Obviously my projection is a tad on the conservative side, but this young man has 50 SB upside if given a full time role.  The 4 HRs are nice as well, but the low flyball % (27.1%) doesn’t suggest any growth in that area, so don’t expect anything over 6 HRs.  Let the other managers pick Michael Bourn, Rajai Davis and Nyjer Morgan while you go in for the swoop rounds later for virtually the same production.

Kurt Suzuki, C – Oakland Athletics – 2009 - | .274 | 15 HR | 88 RBI | 8 SB |

The only ones that probably knew Suzuki had 15 HRs were owners who had him on their teams, and Suzuki himself.  10 of his 15 HRs came over the second half – 9 of them over the final 2 months - but is the power for real?  He is hitting the ball harder, showing a 3 year growth in linedrive % and flyball %, however according to Hit Tracker, almost half his HRs were hit just hard enough to clear the fence.  He hit all over the lineup, but was most effective batting 5th (.299, 4 HR and 25 RBI).  I’d expect similar HR totals next year, but wouldn’t be at all surprised to see further growth in the power department.

Matt Joyce, OF – Tampa Bay Rays – 2009 - | .188 | 3 HR | 7 RBI | 1 SB |

Depending on how the Rays OF situation plays out, Joyce could be a sneaky pick in deeper leagues.  In his very brief stint with the Rays last year, Joyce flexed his power potential, hitting 3 HR in just 32 AB.  In the minors, he hit .273 with 16 HR and 66 RBI in 417 AB.  The only thing holding him back is the low contact rate (78% minor league career).  However, if given a full time job Joyce has 30 HR potential.

Alberto Callaspo, 2B – Kansas City Royals – 2009 - | .300 | 11 HR | 73 RBI | 2 SB |

Deep-leaguers in need of a 2nd baseman need to take a look at Callaspo.  A .300 hitter, Callaspo looks like he might be showing glimpses of a power game as well, finishing the 2009 season with a line of .300 / 11 HR / 73 RBI. The result of the increase in HRs can be attributed to the increased flyball percentage, upping it from 27.5% in ’08 to 41.9% in ’09.  Callaspo is about to enter his prime years, and as an end game pick, you might have yourself a nice little bargain.

Randy Ruiz, DH – Toronto Blue Jays – 2009 - | .313 | 10 HR | 17 RBI | 1 SB |

All he needs is a spot in the lineup, and as I write this, it looks like the DH spot is his for the taking.  If so, 25 HRs is not out of the question, considering he was hitting balls out of the park at a rate of 1 in every 11.5 AB.  That number puts him in the same class as Carlos Pena and Albert Pujols.  Obviously he won’t drive in the same numbers but the 31 year old could provide good value as a late round pick in very deep leagues.  Ruiz will provide a good average with above average power.  His only knock is that he’ll most likely qualify as UTIL only.

Scott Sizemore, 2B – Detroit Tigers – 2009 - | Rookie |

The departure of long time 2nd baseman Placido Polanco has opened the door for 24 year old Scott Sizemore.  In two levels of minor league ball last year (AA/AAA), he posted a line of .308, 17 HR, 66 RBI and 21 SB.  Sizemore will be a 5 category threat in his prime, but for next year, 15 HR / 15 SB with a good average is not out of the question.

Comments (0)

Subscribe to this comment's feed