A few weeks ago, we looked at some young NL positition players whom I expect to outperform their draft value this year.  Now let’s take a look at their mound-faring counterparts.

On June 7th, 2009, my beloved Atlanta Braves finally called up Tommy Hanson.  It was about time.  After all, we drafted him all the way back in 2005 and he had been toiling in the minors for almost a full three seasons before we gave him a long-awaited shot.  Well at least it seemed long-awaited to me.  As a baseball fan, nothing compares to finally getting to see what your team’s biggest hotshot phenom is made of.  Just ask Giants’ fans, who waited patiently for Tim Lincecum to get the call in the summer of 2007, and have been rewarded with back-to-back Cy Young Awards and the game’s best pitcher at the ripe age of 25.  But Tiny Tim isn’t the only under-25 NL gunslinger fans are flocking to see.

Tommy Hanson (RHP, Braves) – If you thought I was going to take the journalistic high road and not discuss the franchise cornerstone of my favorite team – well, you overestimated me.  All bias aside, Big Red is sick.  And I’m not the only one who thinks so; check out Dan Snyder’s most recent Top 150 Pitchers (for keeper leagues). He ranks Hanson fifth in all of MLB (and Dan’s a Phillies fan).  While I might not necessarily think you should draft Hanson quite that high, it doesn’t matter because you won’t have to.  His peripheral numbers were there all season last year – he finished with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 127 IP – but it’s his post all-star K/9 that should really stand out.  Hanson posted a sick 9.52 in that category after the mid-summer classic, up from only 5.48 in 41 IP pre All-Star game.  I watched all his outings and can tell you there was a noticeable difference in his approach once he started to gain some confidence in his abilities at the big league level.  He’s going to strike out 200 batters this year, and he’s going to do it with similar ERA and WHIP numbers to last year.  That right there is good enough to put him in the top 10 among all SPs, so if you can potentially get him as the 20th pitcher off the board, you should absolutely pull the trigger.

Josh Johnson (RHP, Marlins) – For Johnson’s sake, you’ll have to ignore the part I said earlier about “fans flocking to see” him.  And it’s too bad, because the tens of fans who do come out to watch the Marlins play are watching one heck of a young pitcher.  He just signed an extension worth almost $40 million, and he’s worth every penny.  The 6’7, 250 pounder dominated competition last year, posting a career high 15 wins, 191 strikeouts, and 209 innings pitched.  Add to that a career low 3.23 ERA, and we’re looking at one of the best seasons any pitcher in baseball had last year.  It remains to be seen whether Johnson will be properly valued when draft season rolls around, but anything lower than the third NL pitcher off the board (behind Lincecum and Halladay ) would be fine with me.  I have a hunch though that you will be able to still get him after some big names like Santana and Hamels, and I fully expect him to outperform those guys this year in Miami.

Clayton Kershaw (LHP, Marlins) – Kershaw is the youngest member of the All-Diaper team, but that didn’t stop him from posting a great stat line in 2009 at the tender age of 21.  He only managed eight wins and his career 4.6 BB/9 is a bit alarming, but a look beyond that shows a guy burdening on superstardom.  He struck out 185 in only 171 innings pitched and allowed a mind-blowing .200 batting average against.  When his curveball and 95+ mph fastball are both on, he’s unhittable.  Just ask any batter who had the misfortune of facing him in July, where he posted a 0.71 ERA with 34 strikeouts and only 21 hits allowed in 38 innings.  Kershaw is going to have a lot of buzz attached to his name when it comes time to draft, which could result in inflated value.  But as long as you don’t go spend a top 40 pick on him, I think you can be happy with the value you get from him.

The 2010’s look bright in the National League, with guys like Matt Cain, Jair Jurrjens, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Stephen Strasburg joining the likes of Linceum, Hanson, Johnson, and Kershaw on the list of franchise pitchers who are yet to celebrate their 26th birthdays.  So remember: if you’re torn between drafting a mid-tier third or fourth starter who has been around the block or taking a shot at one of these youngsters with the sky as their limit, go the young route.

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